Before we get far into this whole awards-show-season business, I feel that it’s only fair to confess something: I am a bad-luck charm. I’m like an interfering signal, cutting off all hope of victory for anybody in my path. I make professional sports teams lose, just by showing up for the game. My political voting record is terrible. And nobody I choose ever wins at entertainment awards shows. Don’t vote with me, or your picks will clearly lose.
That said, Cinema Hype would not be very hype-y about cinema without a few awards predictions. Silence does not become me. So, acknowledging that my choices will likely not be approaching the podium tonight, I offer CH’s choices for the 2007 Golden Globe awards:
Best Motion Picture - Drama:
Babel
Bobby
The Departed
Little Children
The Queen
CH Pick: The Departed
I’m at a bit of a disadvantage here, having (somewhat embarrassingly) not seen several of the choices. To some extent, this category is also comparing apples and oranges: what kind of comparison can we really make between The Queen and The Departed? I’m giving Martin Scorsese the silent treatment until he refunds the three hours I spent on Gangs of New York–hours I could have spent doing something, anything, else–but I’m working on letting go of that grudge.
Who Might Actually Win: Babel or The Departed
Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Borat
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
Thank You For Smoking
CH Pick: Dreamgirls
If this were a movies-I-want-to-watch-over-and-over-again contest, Little Miss Sunshine would win, hands down. Let the record reflect that the CH staff has nothing but affection for Olive Hoover and her family. However, I can’t in good conscience pick LMS for Best Picture: while I love it personally, there’s a looseness to the screenplay–a pacing thing, maybe–that keeps me from nominating it. I like the size and elaborateness of Dreamgirls; also, I wasn’t totally wild about Borat, Prada or Smoking. Dreamgirls it is.
Who Might Actually Win: Dreamgirls or Little Miss Sunshine, if the foreign press is feeling indie-friendly this year
Best Director - Motion Picture
Clint Eastwood - Flags of Our Fathers
Clint Eastwood - Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears - The Queen
Alejandro Inarritu - Babel
Martin Scorsese - The Departed
CH Pick: Well, who knows? Do I really want to vote for Scorsese? It’s like voting for the most popular girl in school to win Homecoming Queen. Not that Eastwood is exactly president of the chess club, either. I’m going out on a limb and saying Inarritu, even if I can’t make my keyboard spell his name correctly.
Who Might Actually Win: Eastwood has the statistical advantage, but Scorsese’s Scorsese. What can you do?
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Penelope Cruz - Volver
Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal
Maggie Gyllenhaal - sherrybaby
Helen Mirren - The Queen
Kate Winslet - Little Children
CH Pick: Helen Mirren?
I’m feeling a little Sophie’s Choice about this category; in my opinion, it’s the toughest field at this year’s Globes. With the possible exception of Cruz, each of these women would be my pick–were the others not present. Despite my personal mission to promote all things Winslet, I suppose I’m going to have to go with Mirren, since I actually forgot during The Queen that she wasn’t…well, the Queen. Tough race, though.
Who Might Actually Win: Mirren, though a Celebrity Death Match between her and Dench might be entertaining.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Departed
Peter O’Toole - Venus
Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland
CH Pick: DiCaprio
I would love to be able to say Forest Whitaker, but DiCaprio has the Eastwood statistical-advantage thing cornered. I predict The Departed.
Who Might Actually Win: DiCaprio. They like him so much, they’re just looking for movies he’s in, just so they can nominate him. Or something.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Annette Bening - Running with Scissors
Toni Collette - Little Miss Sunshine
Beyonce Knowles - Dreamgirls
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Renee Zellweger - Miss Potter
CH Pick: Meryl Streep
If the Drama field is flush with potential winners…what happened here? (Also, I question the placement of both Running with Scissors and Miss Potter in the Comedy category, but that’s a whole different post.) Collette is always lovely, but her character in Little Miss Sunshine is the only one without a major plot thread. This one’s going to be death match between fine actresses playing not-particularly-challenging roles, I think.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Sacha Baron Cohen - Borat
Johnny Depp - Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man’s Chest
Aaron Eckhart - Thank You for Smoking
Chiwetel Ejiofor - Kinky Boots
Will Ferrell - Stranger Than Fiction
CH Pick: Sacha Baron Cohen
This is a quirky field, full of good actors being slightly underused (particularly Depp). My inner geek keeps prodding me to vote for Ejiofor, just because the thought of The Operative winning any kind of award is so exciting, but Cohen does a seamless job in a demanding role. Props to him, and a note to please keep his clothes on next time.
Who Might Actually Win: Cohen or Depp, as an apology for gypping him last time
We at CH know that everybody’s planning on watching the Globes straight through, beginning to end, no bathroom breaks. Right? But just in case you do need to wander away and blow your nose, CH is here for you. We’ll be providing the completely play-by-play (on West Coast time; sorry, we’re powerful, but we can’t bend time [yet]). So fear not! Wander as you like! CH has your back.
Golden Globes